Module 10: Putting It Together — The "FA Story" and TA Confluence

Why this matters

Modules 1–9 give you the components. This module shows you how to assemble them into a coherent thesis for any individual stock, and how to use technical analysis as the timing layer on top of the fundamental layer.

Without this synthesis, you have fragments of analysis. With it, you have a structured, repeatable process that scales across your whole portfolio.

The FA Story — what it is

An "FA Story" is a one-pager that summarises everything material about a stock into a coherent narrative. It forces you to:

State your thesis clearly
Identify what would invalidate it
Quantify upside, downside, and time horizon
Track catalysts that will validate or kill the thesis

If you can't write the FA Story for a stock, you don't understand it well enough to own it.

The FA Story template

For every position (or candidate position), fill out:

1. Company snapshot

Ticker, name, current MC, fully diluted MC, cash position
Project location, jurisdiction, commodity, deposit type
Current Lassonde Curve stage (Module 1)

2. Asset summary

Resource: tonnage, grade, contained metal, % Inferred vs I+M (Module 2)
Reserves (if any): grade, tonnes, mine life
Where the deposit sits on the grade benchmark for this commodity (Module 3)
Strip ratio, recovery, cut-off (Module 3)
Met characteristics — clean / refractory / complex flowsheet
Tier-1 / tier-2 / marginal classification

3. Economics (if past PFS)

NPV, IRR, capex, AISC, payback, LOM (Module 5)
Commodity price assumption vs current spot
Sensitivity at -20% price and +25% capex
Construction lead time

4. Capital structure

SOI, options, performance rights, fully diluted SOI
Top 20 holding %
Identifiable institutions on register
Director on-market activity
Cash runway in quarters
Likely next capital raise size and timing
Estimated dilution from current to first cash flow

5. Catalysts

Next 3 catalysts in chronological order with dates
Conviction level and expected SP impact for each
Current pricing-in level (is the catalyst already in the SP, or not?)

6. Macro positioning

Commodity cycle phase for the relevant commodity
Spot price vs incentive price
Stock's stage matches cycle phase? (Module 9)

7. Red and green flags

Any flags from Module 8 checklist
Independent net assessment

8. Thesis statement (one paragraph)

"Stock X is a Stage [N] [commodity] [deposit type] in [jurisdiction] trading at [MC] vs estimated [intrinsic value/peer multiple]. The thesis is that [catalyst path] over the next [time horizon] will re-rate the SP because [specific drivers]. Downside is bounded by [floor scenario] because [reason]. The thesis is invalidated if [specific events]."

9. Position sizing

Conviction level
Stage-appropriate sizing (see below)
Entry price plan and exit conditions

10. Risks

Top 3 specific risks (not generic "commodity price risk")
Hedging or position management response to each

If you can fill this out for every stock you own, your portfolio is built on actual analysis. If you can't, parts of your portfolio are built on vibes.

Position sizing by stage

Risk is fundamentally different by stage. Sizing should reflect that.

Stage 1–2 (Concept / Early Drilling)

Max 0.5–2% per position of total mining allocation
Lottery economics: most go to zero; rare ones 20–50x
Treat each position as a near-write-off; size to make the win meaningful but the loss survivable

Stage 3–4 (Discovery / Resource Definition)

2–4% per position
High volatility, high information arrival rate
Trim into strength after major catalysts; redeploy on pullbacks

Stage 5–7 (Studies / DFS)

2–5% per position
The orphan period — long time horizons, limited catalysts
Size for time as much as outcome

Stage 8–9 (Construction / Commissioning)

3–6% per position
Highest reward-to-risk if execution is on track
Cap-ex blowouts and ramp problems are the main risks; trim if they appear

Stage 10 (Production)

5–10% per position if conviction is high
Lower risk, lower per-stock upside, but compounds via dividends and reserves growth
Suitable as portfolio anchors

These are defaults. Risk-tolerant investors can lean heavier in earlier stages; risk-averse investors should bias to producers.

Total mining sector exposure

A defensible cap on total mining sector exposure as % of total portfolio depends on your circumstances, but most professional resources investors keep total mining exposure under 30–50% of equity portfolio outside of bull-cycle peaks.

TA — what it actually does for you

Technical analysis tells you nothing about whether a stock is fundamentally cheap or expensive. It tells you about:

Trend — what direction is the SP moving in
Momentum — is the move accelerating or fading
Support / resistance — where price has historically reacted
Volume — is the move backed by participation or thin
Sentiment / positioning — through indicators like RSI, accumulation/distribution

TA is the timing layer on top of FA. FA tells you what to buy; TA tells you when.

Practical TA for mining FA investors

You don't need to be a chartist. The minimum useful kit:

1. Trend identification

50-day and 200-day moving averages
"200dMA rising" = uptrend; "200dMA falling" = downtrend
Don't fight the 200dMA

2. Support and resistance

Prior swing highs and lows
Round numbers (psychological levels)
Levels of major capital raises (often act as resistance — placement shareholders often sell at break-even)

3. Volume

Major moves on heavy volume = real
Major moves on thin volume = suspect (often reverse)
Volume on breakouts is critical confirmation

4. Relative strength

Is the stock outperforming or underperforming peers and the commodity?
Outperformance suggests something is being priced in that you don't yet see
Underperformance suggests the opposite

5. Accumulation patterns

Long sideways range with occasional volume spikes = often institutional accumulation
Watch for breakouts above the range

6. Distribution patterns

Failed rallies on heavy volume
Lower highs after a sustained uptrend
Often precede major down moves

What you don't need

Most chart patterns (head and shoulders, cup and handle, etc.), Elliott Waves, Fibonacci retracement debates, and the entire indicator soup. They add complexity without much edge for fundamentally-driven mining investing.

FA + TA confluence — the actual playbook

Setup A: FA bullish, TA bullish

Strong fundamentals
Uptrend, above 200dMA, recent breakout on volume
Action: full position size, add on pullbacks to support

Setup B: FA bullish, TA bearish (the orphan trap)

Strong fundamentals
Downtrend, below 200dMA, no buying interest
Action: wait. Even a great FA story can take 6–18 months to find a bid in a downtrend. Build a watchlist and start a small position; don't go heavy until trend turns.

Setup C: FA neutral, TA bullish

Mediocre fundamentals
Stock is moving on momentum / sector rotation / promotion
Action: if you're trading, take a small position with tight stop. If you're investing, ignore.

Setup D: FA bearish, TA bullish (the trap)

Weak fundamentals (poor grade, poor jurisdiction, poor management)
Stock running on hype
Action: avoid. The eventual reckoning is brutal.

Setup E: FA bearish, TA bearish

Avoid. Don't bottom-fish broken companies.

The best risk-adjusted setups come from Setup A and from Setup B after the trend turns.

When to sell

Selling is the part most investors are worst at. Pre-define exit conditions for every position:

Sell conditions worth respecting

Thesis invalidated — the specific catalyst path you bought for has failed
Position size too large — winning positions can grow into oversized concentrations; trim back to plan
Better opportunity — capital is fungible; if you find a clearly better setup, rotate
Macro cycle has turned — trim into late-cycle mania regardless of how good a specific story still looks
Capital raise dilution — significant unexpected dilution may invalidate your math; recheck the FA Story

Sell conditions NOT worth respecting

"It's down 20%" — only sell on thesis change, not price action alone
"I want to lock in profits" — only relevant if you've hit your price target or thesis playing out
"Someone on Twitter said it's a fraud" — do your own work
Any single-day move

The best mining investments often look bad for periods between catalysts. Selling on price weakness alone is how retail consistently gives up the second peak of the Lassonde curve.

Building and maintaining the system

This is a practice, not a one-off exercise.

Weekly

Skim ASX announcements for all holdings (15 min)
Update catalyst calendar with new dates / slippage
Note any unusual SP / volume action

Monthly

Re-read FA Story for each holding; mark anything stale
Update macro view on each commodity
Review portfolio sector allocation vs cycle

Quarterly

Read the Appendix 5B for each holding in detail
Update cash runway calculations
Re-check fully diluted MC after any raises

Annually

Read every annual report for every holding (yes, all of it — financial notes especially)
Re-test thesis from scratch
Cull positions you wouldn't initiate today

Final perspective

The course brief talked about creating a "well-rounded skill set" and an "FA Story" that integrates everything. Here's the honest version:

The framework is straightforward. The execution is a multi-year discipline. You will get things wrong — sometimes you'll lose 50%+ on a position despite doing the work. The point isn't to be right every time. The point is to:

Have a thesis that's structured, falsifiable, and defensible
Size positions so individual losses don't wipe you out
Hold long enough for catalysts to play out
Sell when thesis breaks, not when SP wobbles
Repeat across enough positions that variance averages out

Mining is a sector where the math punishes the lazy and rewards the patient. Most retail are neither. If you actually do the FA Story work for every position, hold size discipline, and respect cycles, you'll be ahead of the vast majority.

Practical exercise — your first FA Story

Pick one stock from your current ASX mining holdings. Build the full FA Story above using only ASX-disclosed information (announcements, quarterlies, annual report, presentations). Spend at least 4 hours on it.

When done, ask yourself: "If I had to defend this position to a sceptical professional investor in 30 minutes, do I have the answers?"

If the answer is yes, you've internalised the framework. If no, the gaps tell you what to research next.

What I'm uncertain about

Position sizing recommendations are conventional ranges; your circumstances (total wealth, time horizon, dependents, risk tolerance) should drive your specific allocations.
TA effectiveness in junior mining is debatable. The signal-to-noise is lower than in liquid large-caps because thin trading and concentrated holders can drive moves unrelated to fundamentals or technicals. Use TA as a tiebreaker, not a primary driver.
The "weekly/monthly/quarterly/annual" cadence above is a starting framework. Some periods of intense activity (live drill programs, study release windows) require daily attention; quiet periods need much less.

Where to go from here

You now have:

The Lassonde Curve framework (Module 1)
JORC literacy (Module 2)
Grade context (Module 3)
Drill result decoding (Module 4)
Economic study analysis (Module 5)
Capital structure analysis (Module 6)
Catalyst calendaring (Module 7)
Red flag detection (Module 8)
Macro overlay (Module 9)
Synthesis and execution (Module 10)

The next step is applying it to real stocks. Not in theory — in your actual portfolio, with real money at stake. The framework only becomes valuable when you've used it enough that it becomes second nature.

When you're ready, bring me specific companies, specific announcements, or specific scenarios and we'll work through them together using the framework.